(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
July 24 -
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Summary analysis -- DBS Bank Ltd. --------------------------------- 24-Jul-2012
===============================================================================
CREDIT RATING: AA-/Stable/A-1+ Country: Singapore
Primary SIC: Commercial banks,
nec
Mult. CUSIP6: 233048
Mult. CUSIP6: 23305D
Mult. CUSIP6: 23305E
Mult. CUSIP6: 23305G
Mult. CUSIP6: 24023C
Mult. CUSIP6: 24023D
Mult. CUSIP6: 251594
===============================================================================
Credit Rating History:
Local currency Foreign currency
10-Jul-2005 AA-/A-1+ AA-/A-1+
16-Jul-1999 A+/A-1 A+/A-1
===============================================================================
Ratings Score Snapshot
Issuer Credit Rating AA-/Stable/A-1+
SACP a
Anchor bbb+
Business Position Strong (+1)
Capital and Earnings Adequate (0)
Risk Position Adequate (0)
Funding and Liquidity Above Average
and Strong (+1)
Support +2
GRE Support 0
Group Support 0
Sovereign Support +2
Additional Factors 0
Major Rating Factors
Strengths:
-- Market leader in Singapore with a strong franchise
-- Strong funding profile
-- Strong risk management capabilities to safeguard loan quality
Weaknesses:
-- Exposure to increasing economic and credit risk due to continuous
expansion in emerging Asian markets
-- Pressure on capitalization due to loan book expansion
Outlook
The stable outlook on DBS reflects our belief that DBS will remain a bank with
"high systemic importance" in Singapore, and its SACP will stay within the 'a'
category over the next one to two years. The outlook also reflects the outlook
on the sovereign credit rating on Singapore.
We could downgrade DBS if: (1) we lower the sovereign credit rating on
Singapore; (2) we no longer believe DBS has high systemic importance in
Singapore; (3) the bank's SACP declines by two notches; or (4) the wider DBS
group's credit profile significantly weakens. We could lower DBS' SACP if the
bank's risk-adjusted capital ratio is likely to decline below 7% due to
aggressive expansion or if the bank's asset quality declines substantially.
The wider DBS group's credit profile could weaken if it undertakes further
aggressive or debt-funded acquisitions or its overall asset quality
deteriorates.
We consider an upgrade of DSB unlikely in the next one to two years. We could
raise the rating if the bank strengthens its capitalization and business
position, such that we raise the SACP by two notches.
Rationale
We base our ratings on DBS Bank Ltd. on the bank's "strong" business position,
"adequate" capital and earnings, "adequate" risk position, "above-average"
funding, and "strong" liquidity, as our criteria define those terms. The
stand-alone credit profile (SACP) on DBS is 'a'.
Our 'bbb+' anchor SACP for DBS draws on our Banking Industry Country Risk
Assessment methodology and our view of the economic and industry risks in the
countries where the bank operates. The economic risk score of '4' is based on
the weighted average of DBS' private-sector loans to nonbanks in each country
in which it operates, including over 40% in Singapore, about 20% in Hong Kong,
and the rest across Asia. Our economic risk assessment of Singapore reflects
its high income, and diverse and resilient economy, although we believe some
potential imbalances are building up in the property sector. DBS' industry
risk score of '2' benefits from Singapore's well-developed institutional
framework, prudent banking practices, and stable funding support of core
customer deposits.
DBS' strong market leader position in Singapore, with the largest branch
network and customer deposit base, contributes to our assessment of the bank's
business position. We expect DBS to maintain its resilient revenue stream and
high customer retention despite the increasingly challenging macroeconomic
conditions in Asia. The bank is likely to further diversify its revenue mix
and increase contribution from markets outside Singapore over the next few
years.
We expect DBS's risk-adjusted capital ratio to stay above 7% over the next two
years. This is based on the assumption that loan growth will slow down
substantially, as compared to the rapid growth rate in 2011. We also believe
the bank's profit generation and retention will partially mitigate the
negative impact of continuous loan growth on capitalization. In our view, the
bank's net interest margin and profitability will remain fairly stable. These
factors support our assessment of the bank's capital and earnings.
Our risk position assessment for DBS reflects our expectation that the bank's
credit risk exposure is likely to shift continuously towards emerging markets,
such as China and India, where the inherent economic risk is higher, in our
view. We believe the bank will maintain its conservative underwriting
standards and focus on selective market segments while expanding in these
countries.
DBS' strong customer deposit franchise in Singapore, with the largest retail
branch network in the country, supports its funding profile. We assess DBS'
liquidity as strong because of the bank's rich pool of liquid assets. We
expect the bank to manage its liquidity in a prudent manner despite a surge in
the U.S. dollar loan-to-deposit ratio over the past two years.
The rating on DBS is two notches higher than the SACP, reflecting our view of
a high likelihood of support from the government of Singapore
(AAA/Stable/A-1+; axAAA/axA-1+). This is due to DBS' "high systemic
importance" in Singapore and our assessment of the government as "highly
supportive" to the banking sector. The bank has the largest market share of
loans and deposits in Singapore.
DBS' parent, DBS Group Holdings Ltd. (DBSGH; not rated), proposes to acquire
PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk. (Danamon; BB/Positive/B). The deal is now
pending regulatory approvals. In our view, the move will not directly affect
the financial strength of DBS. However, Danamon's business has higher credit
risks than DBSGH's and integration will involve execution risks. Nonetheless,
the immediate negative pressure on the credit profile of the DBS group is
limited due to Danamon's relatively small size and stronger profitability.
Related Criteria And Research
-- Hong Kong And Singapore Banks' Credit Quality Can Withstand A Mild
Recession In Europe, May 17, 2012
-- Research Update: DBS Bank Ltd. And DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd.
'AA-/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed On Parent's Announced Acquisition Of Danamon,
April 3, 2012
-- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Singapore, March 16, 2012
-- Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
-- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions,
Nov. 9, 2011
-- Group Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
-- Bank Hybrid Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 1, 2011
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/text-p-summary-dbs-bank-ltd-102353319--sector.html
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